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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4557020801001201401604865

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+5
Endgame+15
Fouls+17
AutonomousBlue +8
3Leave9
2Coral scored#2
10Coral points12
13Total auto21
TeleoperatedRed +3
5Coral scored#5
19Coral points18
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
29Total teleop26
Reef
3L4#2
2L3#3
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#9
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +17
0Foul points2
48Total score65

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8736
#23
23.80.4
23.724.2
Auto4.3
Teleop18.0
End1.5
blue by 1.0
5293
#24
24.80.8
24.625.4
Auto7.5
Teleop16.3
End1.1
Second
9086
#33
8.50.5
8.08.5
Auto1.7
Teleop5.9
End0.9
blue by 5.7
14.20.8
13.914.7
Auto4.2
Teleop5.5
End4.5
Third
8815
#31
5.00.5
4.55.0
Auto3.1
Teleop0.1
End1.8
blue by 2.2
9057
#26
7.20.9
6.37.2
Auto2.8
Teleop2.4
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
29%Auto oddsEarned43%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
6%Barge oddsMissed17%Barge oddsEarned