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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions576402040801001204935

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+16Teleop
+14Endgame
+14Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave9
3Coral scored#0
16Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +9
6Coral scored#4
21Coral points16
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
6Processor points6
4Net points0
10Algae points6
31Total teleop22
Reef
3L4#2
3L3#1
1L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
11Game pieces#5
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +14
0Foul points0
49Total score35

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4189
#16
28.60.0
23.323.3
Auto7.7
Teleop20.3
End0.6
red by 4.7
4509
#15
24.02.3
29.527.3
Auto5.3
Teleop16.9
End1.8
Second
5074
#11
18.40.1
15.014.9
Auto5.3
Teleop11.2
End2.0
red by 9.2
832
#30
9.21.4
10.69.2
Auto3.5
Teleop4.3
End1.5
Third
8872
#12
11.40.0
11.211.2
Auto1.9
Teleop8.7
End0.9
red by 3.0
9086
#33
8.52.3
15.413.2
Auto1.7
Teleop5.9
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
31%Auto oddsEarned24%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsMissed