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Red207
969263.7
353661.6
83468.0
Blue234
312873.5
821460.7
162565.8
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2022090100300400500207234

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+37
Endgame+27
Fouls+27
AutonomousBlue +14
9Leave3
4Coral scored#8
21Coral points41
30Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +23
24Coral scored#31
87Coral points112
3Processor algae#4
9Net algae#7
18Processor points24
36Net points28
54Algae points52
141Total teleop164
Reef
12L4#12
6L3#11
6L2#11
4L1 · trough#5
40Game pieces#50
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +27
0Foul points0
207Total score234

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
834
#45
68.01.1
66.968.0
Auto13.0
Teleop42.5
End12.5
blue by 5.5
3128
#18
73.52.9
70.673.5
Auto14.4
Teleop48.8
End10.3
Second
9692
#52
63.71.1
62.663.7
Auto16.8
Teleop37.2
End9.7
blue by 2.1
1625
#41
65.82.9
62.565.4
Auto11.4
Teleop42.9
End11.5
Third
3536
#53
61.61.1
60.461.6
Auto10.9
Teleop42.6
End8.1
red by 0.8
60.72.9
57.960.7
Auto15.2
Teleop42.9
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
27%Coral oddsMissed39%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned93%Barge oddsEarned