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Red200
97177.9
20143.7
978568.0
Blue182
850345.6
907736.9
223084.9
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19515250100250300200182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+12Teleop
+24Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave6
9Coral scored#5
47Coral points27
47Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +2
19Coral scored#21
69Coral points77
3Processor algae#6
10Net algae#4
18Processor points36
40Net points16
58Algae points52
127Total teleop129
Reef
8L4#12
9L3#4
5L2#6
6L1 · trough#4
41Game pieces#36
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
0Foul points6
200Total score182

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
971
#17
77.91.7
71.773.4
Auto13.2
Teleop53.5
End11.2
blue by 7.1
2230
#28
84.92.3
76.078.3
Auto20.8
Teleop53.8
End10.3
Second
9785
#34
68.01.7
62.063.7
Auto12.8
Teleop48.1
End7.0
red by 22.4
8503
#60
45.62.3
38.640.8
Auto10.0
Teleop28.8
End6.8
Third
201
#31
43.71.7
41.342.9
Auto11.9
Teleop24.0
End7.8
red by 6.7
9077
#67
36.92.3
27.629.9
Auto9.9
Teleop26.7
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsMissed94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
35%Coral oddsMissed25%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned93%Barge oddsMissed