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Red179
452280.7
49871.8
821460.7
Blue158
350638.8
237064.5
20143.7
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions220153100200250300179158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+43Teleop
+23Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave9
7Coral scored#2
34Coral points11
34Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +29
24Coral scored#23
85Coral points82
4Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
24Processor points6
20Net points12
44Algae points18
129Total teleop100
Reef
15L4#9
5L3#6
8L2#6
3L1 · trough#4
40Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +21
0Foul points2
179Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
80.72.9
79.576.6
Auto20.5
Teleop52.0
End8.3
red by 16.2
2370
#30
64.50.5
62.361.8
Auto11.0
Teleop45.3
End8.2
Second
498
#15
71.82.9
70.067.1
Auto13.5
Teleop49.2
End9.1
red by 28.1
201
#31
43.70.5
44.043.6
Auto11.9
Teleop24.0
End7.8
Third
60.72.9
56.153.2
Auto15.2
Teleop42.9
End2.6
red by 22.0
3506
#54
38.80.5
41.541.0
Auto6.6
Teleop23.5
End8.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsMissed93%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
57%Coral oddsEarned31%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
83%Barge oddsEarned94%Barge oddsEarned