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Red152
198662.0
413524.8
5973.1
Blue163
534852.5
914064.4
857322.7
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17713750100150200250152163

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+9
+3Endgame
Fouls+11
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave0
3Coral scored#5
14Coral points26
23Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +6
24Coral scored#16
85Coral points57
1Processor algae#4
3Net algae#7
6Processor points24
12Net points28
18Algae points52
103Total teleop109
Reef
11L4#8
7L3#5
3L2#4
6L1 · trough#4
31Game pieces#32
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +11
0Foul points14
152Total score163

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59
#5
73.10.9
72.371.4
Auto8.0
Teleop55.3
End9.8
red by 8.7
9140
#12
64.40.7
57.958.7
Auto12.2
Teleop44.0
End8.1
Second
1986
#26
62.00.9
57.756.8
Auto16.3
Teleop36.7
End9.0
red by 9.5
5348
#38
52.50.7
49.049.8
Auto9.6
Teleop35.2
End7.7
Third
4135
#75
24.80.9
23.722.8
Auto5.7
Teleop16.8
End2.2
red by 2.0
8573
#71
22.70.7
19.620.4
Auto4.6
Teleop17.4
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
41%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned52%Barge oddsMissed