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Red199
237064.5
186839.0
5973.1
Blue193
253074.1
100239.0
357262.6
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions187198100150250199193

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+4Teleop
+6Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
3Leave0
10Coral scored#5
48Coral points23
51Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +24
28Coral scored#33
100Coral points120
2Processor algae#4
5Net algae#3
12Processor points24
20Net points12
32Algae points36
132Total teleop156
Reef
10L4#14
9L3#10
9L2#7
10L1 · trough#7
45Game pieces#45
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
0Foul points0
199Total score193

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59
#5
73.11.3
71.472.7
Auto8.0
Teleop55.3
End9.8
blue by 1.0
2530
#42
74.10.2
76.276.3
Auto13.8
Teleop49.4
End11.0
Second
2370
#30
64.51.3
62.663.9
Auto11.0
Teleop45.3
End8.2
red by 1.8
3572
#70
62.60.2
63.063.2
Auto18.7
Teleop35.2
End8.8
Third
1868
#46
39.01.3
34.836.1
Auto11.8
Teleop22.9
End4.3
Level
1002
#68
39.00.2
40.240.4
Auto7.7
Teleop29.7
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
60%Coral oddsEarned39%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned92%Barge oddsMissed