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Red227
121875.1
70633.7
18089.8
Blue189
900847.3
447683.0
353661.6
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions200198170180190210220230240227189

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+18Teleop
+38Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave9
11Coral scored#8
56Coral points42
65Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +4
19Coral scored#19
70Coral points70
4Processor algae#4
8Net algae#7
24Processor points24
32Net points28
56Algae points52
126Total teleop122
Reef
10L4#10
9L3#6
5L2#6
6L1 · trough#5
42Game pieces#38
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
0Foul points0
227Total score189

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
180
#8
89.82.8
84.287.0
Auto20.1
Teleop59.7
End10.0
red by 6.8
4476
#14
83.00.1
78.478.6
Auto22.3
Teleop56.9
End3.8
Second
1218
#16
75.12.8
71.974.7
Auto20.1
Teleop43.3
End11.7
red by 13.5
3536
#53
61.60.1
60.460.5
Auto10.9
Teleop42.6
End8.1
Third
706
#55
33.72.8
28.631.4
Auto7.3
Teleop20.3
End6.1
blue by 13.7
9008
#40
47.30.1
48.248.3
Auto8.2
Teleop31.8
End7.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
68%Coral oddsMissed68%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned94%Barge oddsEarned