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Red134
886642.3
297469.2
52195.5
Blue132
634043.7
905712.4
164845.7
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1351126080100120160180200134132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+24Teleop
0Endgame0
+2Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave6
5Coral scored#4
24Coral points20
30Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +20
21Coral scored#14
74Coral points52
3Processor algae#2
2Net algae#4
18Processor points12
8Net points16
26Algae points28
100Total teleop80
Reef
12L4#9
6L3#3
5L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
31Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +24
2Cage & park26
2Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +2
2Foul points0
134Total score132

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.20.2
68.869.0
Auto10.6
Teleop56.0
End2.6
red by 23.5
45.70.6
44.745.3
Auto9.6
Teleop28.8
End7.3
Second
42.30.2
41.942.2
Auto7.7
Teleop34.9
End-0.2
blue by 1.4
43.70.6
42.743.3
Auto8.7
Teleop27.8
End7.2
Third
5219
#18
5.50.2
5.05.3
Auto3.0
Teleop1.3
End1.2
blue by 6.9
9057
#22
12.40.6
11.412.0
Auto2.7
Teleop6.6
End3.1