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Red100
164845.7
402633.0
174616.5
Blue39
948030.0
634043.7
876110.8
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6964408010012010039

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+23Auto
+49Teleop
+61Endgame
+61Fouls
AutonomousRed +23
0Leave0
5Coral scored#0
23Coral points0
23Total auto0
TeleoperatedRed +26
12Coral scored#6
43Coral points23
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#3
6Processor points0
12Net points12
18Algae points12
61Total teleop35
Reef
7L4#3
4L3#1
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#9
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +61
0Foul points0
100Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.72.4
35.237.6
Auto9.6
Teleop28.8
End7.3
red by 2.0
43.71.5
35.233.7
Auto8.7
Teleop27.8
End7.2
Second
33.02.4
17.820.2
Auto6.1
Teleop22.0
End4.9
red by 3.0
30.01.5
17.616.1
Auto4.1
Teleop20.5
End5.4
Third
1746
#20
16.52.4
11.013.4
Auto3.8
Teleop7.6
End5.1
red by 5.7
8761
#26
10.81.5
8.57.0
Auto0.9
Teleop8.0
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsEarned28%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsEarned36%Barge oddsMissed