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Red34
694423.8
174616.5
634043.7
Blue35
363524.4
164845.7
881518.0
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7171405060803435

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+3
Endgame+1
Fouls+1
Autonomouslevel
6Leave6
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +3
5Coral scored#4
18Coral points15
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
22Total teleop25
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#6
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points0
34Total score35

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.72.1
33.731.6
Auto8.7
Teleop27.8
End7.2
blue by 2.0
45.72.1
37.635.5
Auto9.6
Teleop28.8
End7.3
Second
6944
#13
23.82.1
18.916.8
Auto0.1
Teleop20.9
End2.8
blue by 0.6
3635
#12
24.42.1
19.517.4
Auto4.0
Teleop18.7
End1.7
Third
1746
#20
16.52.1
13.411.3
Auto3.8
Teleop7.6
End5.1
blue by 1.4
8815
#11
18.02.1
9.77.6
Auto4.3
Teleop11.5
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsMissed50%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
52%Barge oddsMissed12%Barge oddsMissed