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Red182
881518.0
297469.2
402633.0
Blue119
418820.4
694423.8
710419.9
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1426650100200182119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+55Teleop
+63Endgame
+63Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave0
6Coral scored#2
30Coral points9
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +34
23Coral scored#21
82Coral points76
6Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
36Processor points12
20Net points16
56Algae points28
138Total teleop104
Reef
13L4#7
7L3#9
4L2#3
5L1 · trough#4
40Game pieces#29
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +63
0Foul points0
182Total score119

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.22.8
66.869.5
Auto10.6
Teleop56.0
End2.6
red by 45.4
6944
#13
23.82.1
22.024.1
Auto0.1
Teleop20.9
End2.8
Second
33.02.8
27.930.7
Auto6.1
Teleop22.0
End4.9
red by 12.7
4188
#25
20.42.1
18.520.7
Auto2.9
Teleop16.8
End0.6
Third
8815
#11
18.02.8
13.916.7
Auto4.3
Teleop11.5
End2.2
blue by 1.9
7104
#19
19.92.1
16.418.6
Auto3.1
Teleop15.0
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsEarned13%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsEarned16%Barge oddsMissed