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Red114
634043.7
905712.4
164845.7
Blue109
948030.0
402633.0
810024.9
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10493050150200114109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+3
Endgame+1
+5Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave0
5Coral scored#5
27Coral points23
30Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +10
14Coral scored#14
52Coral points52
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#2
6Processor points12
4Net points8
10Algae points20
62Total teleop72
Reef
5L4#8
6L3#4
5L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#23
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +5
6Foul points0
114Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.70.3
43.744.0
Auto9.6
Teleop28.8
End7.3
red by 12.7
33.00.4
32.633.0
Auto6.1
Teleop22.0
End4.9
Second
43.70.3
41.742.0
Auto8.7
Teleop27.8
End7.2
red by 13.7
30.00.4
29.630.0
Auto4.1
Teleop20.5
End5.4
Third
9057
#22
12.40.3
10.310.6
Auto2.7
Teleop6.6
End3.1
blue by 12.5
8100
#24
24.90.4
24.524.9
Auto3.9
Teleop18.2
End2.8