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Red226
924571.6
662174.0
581757.5
Blue221
388252.5
1047958.6
632471.8
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions206189100150250300226221

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+15Teleop
+5Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
0Leave9
9Coral scored#6
46Coral points31
46Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +9
28Coral scored#29
102Coral points103
4Processor algae#3
7Net algae#6
24Processor points18
28Net points24
52Algae points42
154Total teleop145
Reef
14L4#14
7L3#10
9L2#8
7L1 · trough#3
48Game pieces#44
BargeBlue +10
26Cage & park36
26Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
0Foul points0
226Total score221

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
74.01.8
70.972.7
Auto15.4
Teleop47.9
End10.7
red by 2.2
6324
#31
71.82.6
70.973.5
Auto15.5
Teleop48.4
End7.9
Second
71.61.8
66.268.0
Auto14.5
Teleop49.1
End8.1
red by 13.0
58.62.6
55.558.1
Auto12.2
Teleop38.6
End7.9
Third
5817
#64
57.51.8
55.857.7
Auto8.4
Teleop47.5
End1.7
red by 5.0
3882
#15
52.52.6
50.953.4
Auto6.9
Teleop36.1
End9.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
77%Coral oddsMissed59%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
73%Barge oddsEarned79%Barge oddsEarned