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Red253
490786.0
313055.4
3377.7
Blue208
176880.3
247041.2
817743.8
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions245171100150200300253208

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+27Teleop
+47Endgame
+45Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave3
10Coral scored#9
49Coral points44
58Total auto47
TeleoperatedRed +16
25Coral scored#26
91Coral points93
2Processor algae#3
11Net algae#5
12Processor points18
44Net points20
56Algae points38
147Total teleop131
Reef
9L4#13
13L3#11
5L2#8
8L1 · trough#3
48Game pieces#43
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +45
12Foul points14
253Total score208

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
86.00.5
86.987.4
Auto18.7
Teleop55.0
End12.3
red by 5.7
80.31.6
77.379.0
Auto20.4
Teleop53.4
End6.4
Second
33
#23
77.70.5
76.577.0
Auto14.0
Teleop55.5
End8.2
red by 33.9
8177
#46
43.81.6
42.544.1
Auto11.4
Teleop23.8
End8.6
Third
3130
#13
55.40.5
59.059.4
Auto11.7
Teleop34.6
End9.1
red by 14.2
2470
#70
41.21.6
38.540.1
Auto9.3
Teleop28.9
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
52%Coral oddsEarned70%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
99%Barge oddsEarned83%Barge oddsEarned