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Red214
8646.4
23070.5
296052.7
Blue165
78158.8
381428.9
115366.5
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions186179050100150250300350214165

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+5Auto
+19Teleop
+39Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +5
0Leave9
9Coral scored#6
44Coral points30
44Total auto39
TeleoperatedRed +14
21Coral scored#24
74Coral points86
5Processor algae#2
7Net algae#5
30Processor points12
28Net points20
58Algae points32
132Total teleop118
Reef
9L4#16
9L3#5
7L2#5
5L1 · trough#4
42Game pieces#37
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
12Foul points2
214Total score165

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
230
#21
70.51.4
69.070.4
Auto17.2
Teleop43.6
End9.7
red by 4.1
1153
#57
66.50.8
72.071.2
Auto14.6
Teleop43.8
End8.1
Second
2960
#20
52.71.4
54.155.5
Auto10.5
Teleop34.9
End7.3
blue by 6.1
781
#59
58.80.8
61.660.8
Auto13.2
Teleop43.1
End2.5
Third
86
#49
46.41.4
44.245.6
Auto9.7
Teleop26.5
End10.2
red by 17.5
3814
#66
28.90.8
28.127.3
Auto4.3
Teleop21.2
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
26%Coral oddsEarned29%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned72%Barge oddsMissed