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Red150
381428.9
742140.6
190260.7
Blue174
365665.8
857063.9
817743.8
9%Model gave it91%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12418550100150200250150174

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+20
Teleop+4
Endgame+24
Fouls+24
AutonomousBlue +20
0Leave0
4Coral scored#8
19Coral points39
19Total auto39
TeleoperatedRed +16
21Coral scored#22
77Coral points79
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#2
18Processor points12
20Net points8
38Algae points20
115Total teleop99
Reef
8L4#11
7L3#8
6L2#7
4L1 · trough#4
33Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +24
0Foul points0
150Total score174

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1902
#30
60.72.0
58.960.9
Auto9.5
Teleop45.0
End6.2
blue by 5.1
3656
#11
65.80.8
59.159.9
Auto12.0
Teleop43.3
End10.5
Second
7421
#71
40.62.0
41.543.5
Auto9.6
Teleop27.7
End3.2
blue by 23.3
8570
#53
63.90.8
65.566.3
Auto15.5
Teleop36.9
End11.4
Third
3814
#66
28.92.0
19.621.6
Auto4.3
Teleop21.2
End3.4
blue by 14.9
8177
#46
43.80.8
37.438.2
Auto11.4
Teleop23.8
End8.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
22%Coral oddsMissed78%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
86%Barge oddsEarned97%Barge oddsEarned