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Red150
664747.7
857063.9
392851.9
Blue178
46762.3
54043.2
400952.0
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions170160120140180200150178

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+38
Endgame+28
Fouls+28
AutonomousBlue +10
3Leave3
6Coral scored#8
31Coral points41
34Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +28
16Coral scored#21
56Coral points76
3Processor algae#3
4Net algae#6
18Processor points18
16Net points24
34Algae points42
90Total teleop118
Reef
7L4#10
8L3#5
5L2#8
2L1 · trough#6
29Game pieces#38
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +28
0Foul points0
150Total score178

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8570
#53
63.90.4
66.366.0
Auto15.5
Teleop36.9
End11.4
red by 1.6
467
#41
62.32.1
53.956.0
Auto15.8
Teleop36.2
End10.2
Second
3928
#16
51.90.4
49.749.4
Auto8.8
Teleop35.5
End7.6
blue by 0.1
4009
#35
52.02.1
50.552.6
Auto11.2
Teleop37.4
End3.4
Third
6647
#36
47.70.4
39.238.9
Auto7.7
Teleop37.1
End2.8
red by 4.5
540
#50
43.22.1
42.744.8
Auto9.6
Teleop33.8
End-0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
54%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
83%Barge oddsEarned72%Barge oddsEarned