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Red144
573663.2
150661.8
37946.8
Blue120
665215.3
248548.2
115366.5
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1371500100200300400144120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+14Teleop
+24Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
0Leave0
7Coral scored#6
37Coral points28
37Total auto28
TeleoperatedRed +5
14Coral scored#18
49Coral points66
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#2
18Processor points12
24Net points8
42Algae points20
91Total teleop86
Reef
5L4#10
8L3#6
6L2#6
2L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#28
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
0Foul points0
144Total score120

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5736
#56
63.21.1
59.460.5
Auto18.0
Teleop37.3
End7.9
blue by 3.3
1153
#57
66.50.6
73.873.2
Auto14.6
Teleop43.8
End8.1
Second
1506
#24
61.81.1
58.359.4
Auto15.6
Teleop38.1
End8.1
red by 13.6
2485
#52
48.20.6
42.942.3
Auto11.9
Teleop31.2
End5.1
Third
3794
#69
6.81.2
9.811.0
Auto1.9
Teleop4.1
End0.8
blue by 8.5
6652
#65
15.30.6
12.812.1
Auto4.3
Teleop8.8
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed26%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
87%Barge oddsEarned78%Barge oddsMissed