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Red171
790245.6
7063.4
381428.9
Blue174
103840.5
287773.3
664747.7
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions160154100200250171174

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+5Auto
Teleop+5
Endgame+3
Fouls+3
AutonomousRed +5
9Leave9
5Coral scored#4
26Coral points21
35Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +10
21Coral scored#25
76Coral points90
3Processor algae#3
4Net algae#3
18Processor points18
16Net points12
34Algae points30
110Total teleop120
Reef
9L4#6
9L3#10
5L2#7
3L1 · trough#6
33Game pieces#35
BargeRed +2
26Cage & park24
26Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +3
0Foul points0
171Total score174

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70
#40
63.41.6
67.869.4
Auto12.4
Teleop40.6
End10.4
blue by 9.9
2877
#32
73.32.0
68.770.7
Auto19.8
Teleop43.5
End10.0
Second
7902
#27
45.61.6
45.447.0
Auto7.6
Teleop29.5
End8.4
blue by 2.1
6647
#36
47.72.0
38.940.9
Auto7.7
Teleop37.1
End2.8
Third
3814
#66
28.91.6
22.924.5
Auto4.3
Teleop21.2
End3.4
blue by 11.5
1038
#42
40.52.0
25.227.2
Auto8.0
Teleop29.4
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
31%Coral oddsEarned69%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned48%Barge oddsEarned