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Red191
397081.7
859535.9
400952.0
Blue80
247041.2
790245.6
248548.2
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18414910020025019180

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+101Teleop
+101Endgame
+111Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
6Leave3
9Coral scored#5
43Coral points26
49Total auto29
TeleoperatedRed +81
21Coral scored#5
74Coral points19
5Processor algae#2
3Net algae#1
30Processor points12
12Net points4
42Algae points16
116Total teleop35
Reef
12L4#4
8L3#3
6L2#2
4L1 · trough#1
38Game pieces#13
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +111
10Foul points0
191Total score80

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3970
#43
81.70.6
80.481.0
Auto17.5
Teleop54.2
End10.0
red by 33.5
2485
#52
48.24.4
47.643.2
Auto11.9
Teleop31.2
End5.1
Second
4009
#35
52.00.6
50.951.5
Auto11.2
Teleop37.4
End3.4
red by 6.5
7902
#27
45.64.4
48.944.6
Auto7.6
Teleop29.5
End8.4
Third
8595
#55
35.90.6
35.335.9
Auto7.5
Teleop23.1
End5.3
blue by 5.3
2470
#70
41.24.4
42.938.5
Auto9.3
Teleop28.9
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
26%Coral oddsMissed15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
71%Barge oddsEarned69%Barge oddsEarned