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Red144
583733.1
957647.4
331353.1
Blue94
392849.4
906123.6
1047618.1
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions121935015014494

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+5Auto
+28Teleop
+50Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +5
3Leave0
7Coral scored#6
34Coral points32
37Total auto32
TeleoperatedRed +23
15Coral scored#13
55Coral points46
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
12Processor points6
12Net points4
24Algae points10
79Total teleop56
Reef
11L4#7
5L3#4
3L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
27Game pieces#21
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +50
2Foul points2
144Total score94

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.12.4
36.538.9
Auto13.7
Teleop32.2
End7.2
red by 3.7
3928
#11
49.40.3
43.743.9
Auto11.7
Teleop31.8
End5.9
Second
47.42.4
40.242.6
Auto9.8
Teleop29.8
End7.9
red by 23.8
9061
#33
23.60.5
24.424.9
Auto6.9
Teleop14.9
End1.9
Third
5837
#21
33.14.0
26.830.8
Auto5.7
Teleop25.0
End2.4
red by 15.0
18.10.5
16.717.2
Auto3.2
Teleop15.0
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned76%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsEarned57%Barge oddsMissed