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Red149
99979.4
464657.1
198776.2
Blue154
16760.7
387117.6
392850.5
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions146129050100200250149154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+9
+1Teleop
Endgame+3
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +9
3Leave9
6Coral scored#7
31Coral points34
34Total auto43
TeleoperatedRed +10
21Coral scored#16
75Coral points59
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#3
12Processor points18
12Net points12
24Algae points30
99Total teleop89
Reef
13L4#7
7L3#8
4L2#6
3L1 · trough#2
32Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +4
16Cage & park20
16Total endgame20
Penalties & totalBlue +5
0Foul points2
149Total score154

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.20.2
74.574.7
Auto17.0
Teleop49.1
End10.2
red by 15.5
167
#2
60.70.6
58.759.3
Auto20.5
Teleop38.0
End2.3
Second
57.10.2
55.455.6
Auto14.4
Teleop36.0
End6.7
red by 6.5
50.50.6
48.549.1
Auto8.9
Teleop33.1
End8.6
Third
9997
#11
9.40.3
7.27.5
Auto3.4
Teleop3.9
End1.8
blue by 8.2
3871
#12
17.60.6
15.616.2
Auto4.2
Teleop10.9
End2.6