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Red67
494439.2
213021.7
973715.8
Blue31
366925.9
855018.5
1044815.7
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions87770501001506731

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+24Teleop
+36Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave6
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points6
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +27
7Coral scored#3
26Coral points11
2Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
12Processor points0
4Net points4
16Algae points4
42Total teleop15
Reef
3L4#2
2L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
11Game pieces#5
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +36
0Foul points0
67Total score31

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4944
#14
39.20.8
40.940.0
Auto4.4
Teleop29.5
End5.3
red by 13.3
3669
#41
25.93.9
29.825.9
Auto5.2
Teleop15.0
End5.6
Second
2130
#18
21.71.2
21.420.2
Auto5.8
Teleop11.0
End4.9
red by 3.2
8550
#36
18.53.9
22.418.5
Auto3.6
Teleop13.0
End1.8
Third
9737
#31
15.81.2
17.015.8
Auto2.2
Teleop11.6
End2.0
red by 0.1
15.73.9
19.615.7
Auto5.7
Teleop8.5
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsMissed65%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
61%Barge oddsEarned59%Barge oddsMissed