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Red89
414356.2
512517.0
306720.9
Blue69
486325.1
928045.5
965423.7
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions117850501001508969

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+26Teleop
+30Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
9Leave9
5Coral scored#0
24Coral points0
33Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +2
8Coral scored#11
30Coral points38
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
12Processor points6
8Net points4
20Algae points10
50Total teleop48
Reef
4L4#3
4L3#5
4L2#1
1L1 · trough#2
17Game pieces#13
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
0Foul points10
89Total score69

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.20.4
60.560.1
Auto12.6
Teleop37.3
End6.2
red by 10.8
9280
#31
45.51.1
31.130.0
Auto5.1
Teleop37.4
End2.9
Second
3067
#14
20.90.4
17.817.4
Auto5.9
Teleop12.2
End2.8
blue by 4.1
4863
#16
25.11.8
19.217.4
Auto7.3
Teleop15.4
End2.3
Third
5125
#32
17.00.4
16.916.5
Auto4.4
Teleop11.1
End1.5
blue by 6.7
9654
#24
23.71.8
24.823.0
Auto5.7
Teleop15.4
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
33%Auto oddsEarned45%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
25%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
60%Barge oddsMissed23%Barge oddsEarned