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Red161
263845.9
464529.7
409651.6
Blue85
582224.8
178138.8
478725.6
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions134975015020016185

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+62Teleop
+64Endgame
+76Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
0Leave6
7Coral scored#1
37Coral points6
37Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +37
20Coral scored#11
72Coral points41
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
12Processor points6
16Net points16
28Algae points22
100Total teleop63
Reef
10L4#4
6L3#4
8L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
33Game pieces#17
BargeRed +2
12Cage & park10
12Total endgame10
Penalties & totalRed +76
12Foul points0
161Total score85

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.60.6
49.249.9
Auto15.2
Teleop34.5
End1.8
red by 12.7
1781
#13
38.80.1
39.139.0
Auto6.8
Teleop31.7
End0.4
Second
45.90.6
43.544.2
Auto11.6
Teleop27.5
End6.8
red by 20.2
25.60.1
26.025.9
Auto5.7
Teleop13.9
End6.1
Third
4645
#25
29.70.6
27.428.0
Auto6.2
Teleop21.6
End1.9
red by 4.9
5822
#27
24.80.1
25.125.0
Auto5.0
Teleop15.7
End4.2