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Red130
270427.9
478720.8
229033.3
Blue29
812221.9
215112.0
178120.6
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8481406010012013029

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+16Auto
+101Teleop
+101Endgame
+101Fouls
AutonomousRed +16
9Leave3
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
19Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +85
16Coral scored#5
59Coral points18
4Processor algae#0
6Net algae#1
24Processor points0
24Net points4
48Algae points4
107Total teleop22
Reef
7L4#1
5L3#2
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
28Game pieces#6
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +101
0Foul points0
130Total score29

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2290
Unranked
33.32.7
30.132.8
Auto9.7
Teleop20.2
End3.4
red by 11.4
8122
Unranked
21.93.8
27.123.3
Auto6.6
Teleop10.6
End4.7
Second
2704
Unranked
27.92.7
26.429.1
Auto3.6
Teleop23.6
End0.7
red by 7.3
1781
Unranked
20.63.8
30.326.5
Auto3.8
Teleop16.8
End-0.0
Third
4787
Unranked
20.82.7
19.722.3
Auto3.9
Teleop14.1
End2.8
red by 8.7
2151
Unranked
12.03.8
17.213.4
Auto3.4
Teleop9.2
End-0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
10%Coral oddsEarned9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed26%Barge oddsMissed