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Red179
233876.0
99902.9
1043541.5
Blue30
464520.8
99999.5
470211.8
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15639010020025017930

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+75Teleop
+85Endgame
+149Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave9
2Coral scored#1
11Coral points7
20Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +71
13Coral scored#2
47Coral points6
3Processor algae#0
4Net algae#1
18Processor points0
16Net points4
34Algae points4
81Total teleop10
Reef
4L4#1
5L3#1
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#0
22Game pieces#4
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +149
64Foul points0
179Total score30

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2338
Unranked
76.00.5
78.277.7
Auto22.2
Teleop45.1
End8.7
red by 55.1
4645
Unranked
20.81.3
25.223.9
Auto5.4
Teleop13.1
End2.3
Second
10435
Unranked
41.50.5
42.642.1
Auto2.5
Teleop36.8
End2.2
red by 29.6
4702
Unranked
11.81.3
15.213.9
Auto2.7
Teleop7.5
End1.6
Third
9990
Unranked
2.90.8
1.30.5
Auto1.1
Teleop-1.0
End2.9
blue by 6.6
9999
Unranked
9.52.1
8.96.8
Auto2.1
Teleop7.2
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
72%Auto oddsMissed37%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
65%Barge oddsEarned18%Barge oddsMissed