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Red106
1043541.5
99885.9
888039.8
Blue34
99902.9
464520.8
812221.9
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11056010015010634

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+60Teleop
+58Endgame
+72Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points6
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +57
14Coral scored#4
52Coral points15
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
12Processor points0
12Net points4
24Algae points4
76Total teleop19
Reef
5L4#1
5L3#1
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +72
14Foul points0
106Total score34

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
10435
Unranked
41.50.2
42.142.3
Auto2.5
Teleop36.8
End2.2
red by 19.6
8122
Unranked
21.90.9
23.322.4
Auto6.6
Teleop10.6
End4.7
Second
8880
Unranked
39.80.2
40.840.9
Auto5.1
Teleop30.1
End4.5
red by 18.9
4645
Unranked
20.80.9
23.923.0
Auto5.4
Teleop13.1
End2.3
Third
9988
Unranked
5.90.3
6.46.7
Auto1.7
Teleop3.8
End0.3
red by 2.9
9990
Unranked
2.91.5
0.5-1.0
Auto1.1
Teleop-1.0
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
26%Auto oddsEarned62%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed59%Barge oddsMissed