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Red89
414361.5
409635.1
64827.2
Blue68
348839.1
908231.3
359621.3
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11476501001502008968

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+27Teleop
+33Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave0
2Coral scored#3
11Coral points16
20Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +23
10Coral scored#7
35Coral points26
1Processor algae#0
4Net algae#2
6Processor points0
16Net points8
22Algae points8
57Total teleop34
Reef
4L4#4
3L3#2
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#12
BargeRed +6
12Cage & park6
12Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +21
0Foul points12
89Total score68

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.51.1
47.146.0
Auto14.3
Teleop38.3
End8.9
red by 22.4
39.11.6
28.026.4
Auto6.4
Teleop28.7
End4.0
Second
4096
#19
35.11.1
24.022.9
Auto11.0
Teleop23.1
End1.0
red by 3.8
9082
#15
31.31.6
20.518.9
Auto5.7
Teleop22.4
End3.1
Third
648
#33
27.21.1
27.526.4
Auto5.8
Teleop16.8
End4.7
red by 5.9
3596
#27
21.31.6
21.720.2
Auto4.6
Teleop14.7
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsMissed40%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsMissed49%Barge oddsMissed