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Red173
248195.4
665131.9
409635.1
Blue55
247035.4
784829.0
125929.8
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1451005020017355

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+110Teleop
+120Endgame
+118Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave0
6Coral scored#2
31Coral points9
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +82
22Coral scored#8
78Coral points30
2Processor algae#1
8Net algae#1
12Processor points6
32Net points4
44Algae points10
122Total teleop40
Reef
11L4#4
10L3#2
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
38Game pieces#12
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +118
0Foul points2
173Total score55

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
95.43.0
88.391.3
Auto22.2
Teleop60.9
End12.3
red by 60.0
2470
#32
35.44.9
35.530.6
Auto6.6
Teleop26.8
End2.0
Second
4096
#19
35.15.0
23.228.2
Auto11.0
Teleop23.1
End1.0
red by 5.3
1259
#24
29.84.9
25.720.8
Auto8.4
Teleop17.5
End4.0
Third
6651
#18
31.95.0
16.521.5
Auto4.3
Teleop25.0
End2.6
red by 2.9
7848
#17
29.04.9
36.031.1
Auto5.2
Teleop17.7
End6.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
47%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
79%Barge oddsEarned66%Barge oddsMissed