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Red137
414361.5
888031.4
465555.2
Blue93
113857.2
204037.5
431414.9
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1371105010015020013793

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+30Teleop
+38Endgame
+44Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave0
7Coral scored#5
37Coral points23
37Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +16
12Coral scored#12
42Coral points44
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
12Processor points6
20Net points8
32Algae points14
74Total teleop58
Reef
7L4#6
5L3#6
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#20
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +44
12Foul points6
137Total score93

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.50.2
50.750.9
Auto14.3
Teleop38.3
End8.9
red by 4.3
57.21.2
48.747.5
Auto7.5
Teleop41.8
End7.9
Second
55.20.2
41.141.3
Auto14.2
Teleop33.9
End7.1
red by 17.7
2040
#16
37.52.0
38.536.5
Auto8.9
Teleop24.0
End4.5
Third
8880
#30
31.40.2
31.531.7
Auto3.0
Teleop25.4
End3.0
red by 16.5
4314
#31
14.92.0
18.016.0
Auto4.0
Teleop11.6
End-0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned77%Barge oddsMissed