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Red101
120832.4
247035.4
642133.7
Blue79
270424.6
125929.8
665131.9
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions937205015010179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+14Teleop
+28Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave9
5Coral scored#1
23Coral points7
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +7
12Coral scored#9
42Coral points33
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
12Processor points6
8Net points16
20Algae points22
62Total teleop55
Reef
4L4#5
6L3#2
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#15
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
0Foul points6
101Total score79

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2470
#32DQ
35.41.7
26.428.0
Auto6.6
Teleop26.8
End2.0
red by 3.5
6651
#18
31.90.4
28.528.9
Auto4.3
Teleop25.0
End2.6
Second
6421
#12
33.71.2
31.632.8
Auto6.3
Teleop21.3
End6.1
red by 3.9
1259
#24
29.80.4
20.120.5
Auto8.4
Teleop17.5
End4.0
Third
1208
#25
32.41.2
25.726.8
Auto6.0
Teleop22.4
End4.0
red by 7.8
2704
#29
24.60.4
20.320.7
Auto4.8
Teleop18.1
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsEarned54%Barge oddsMissed