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Red103
235824.3
125929.8
286143.6
Blue76
409635.1
623729.9
1043541.6
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1047105015020010376

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+9Teleop
+29Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave0
5Coral scored#2
27Coral points9
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +12
9Coral scored#10
31Coral points37
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
6Processor points12
8Net points8
14Algae points20
45Total teleop57
Reef
4L4#4
3L3#2
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
17Game pieces#16
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
4Foul points6
103Total score76

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2861
#11
43.61.1
40.241.3
Auto8.1
Teleop27.6
End7.9
red by 2.0
41.624.0
42.518.5
Auto4.5
Teleop31.0
End6.0
Second
1259
#24
29.81.3
24.325.6
Auto8.4
Teleop17.5
End4.0
blue by 5.3
4096
#19
35.10.7
25.926.5
Auto11.0
Teleop23.1
End1.0
Third
2358
#23
24.31.3
22.623.9
Auto5.6
Teleop11.8
End6.8
blue by 5.6
29.90.7
20.220.9
Auto4.5
Teleop19.4
End6.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsEarned44%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
58%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsMissed