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Red144
741729.4
286143.6
414361.5
Blue246
248195.4
175672.1
125929.8
3%Model gave it97%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions143206100250144246

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+68
Endgame+90
Fouls+102
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave3
5Coral scored#6
27Coral points30
30Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +65
18Coral scored#28
64Coral points99
3Processor algae#4
3Net algae#9
18Processor points24
12Net points36
30Algae points60
94Total teleop159
Reef
5L4#16
9L3#7
5L2#4
4L1 · trough#7
29Game pieces#47
BargeBlue +22
14Cage & park36
14Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +102
6Foul points18
144Total score246

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.50.5
59.258.7
Auto14.3
Teleop38.3
End8.9
blue by 33.9
95.42.0
92.694.7
Auto22.2
Teleop60.9
End12.3
Second
2861
#11
43.60.4
43.042.6
Auto8.1
Teleop27.6
End7.9
blue by 28.5
72.12.0
71.273.3
Auto10.9
Teleop52.0
End9.2
Third
7417
#22
29.40.5
30.429.9
Auto4.7
Teleop23.6
End1.0
blue by 0.5
1259
#24
29.82.5
24.627.0
Auto8.4
Teleop17.5
End4.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
58%Coral oddsEarned93%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
91%Barge oddsEarned98%Barge oddsEarned