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Red104
286143.6
642133.7
409635.1
Blue111
623729.9
202243.3
888031.4
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1271196080100140160180200104111

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
Teleop+3
Endgame+3
Fouls+7
AutonomousRed +17
6Leave9
5Coral scored#1
24Coral points4
30Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +20
12Coral scored#18
42Coral points64
2Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
12Processor points6
4Net points8
16Algae points14
58Total teleop78
Reef
7L4#8
4L3#3
3L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#22
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +7
2Foul points6
104Total score111

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2861
#11
43.60.3
43.943.6
Auto8.1
Teleop27.6
End7.9
red by 0.4
2022
#10
43.30.1
43.443.4
Auto4.1
Teleop37.1
End2.1
Second
4096
#19
35.10.3
35.435.1
Auto11.0
Teleop23.1
End1.0
red by 3.7
8880
#30
31.40.1
31.631.5
Auto3.0
Teleop25.4
End3.0
Third
6421
#12
33.70.3
34.033.7
Auto6.3
Teleop21.3
End6.1
red by 3.8
29.90.1
30.030.0
Auto4.5
Teleop19.4
End6.1