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Red110
582218.1
178128.8
631741.0
Blue109
642125.9
425627.8
11173.7
14%Model gave it86%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions67158050100200250300350110109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
+19Teleop
Endgame+3
+1Fouls
AutonomousBlue +6
6Leave0
3Coral scored#6
17Coral points29
23Total auto29
TeleoperatedRed +25
13Coral scored#11
45Coral points40
1Processor algae#1
7Net algae#2
6Processor points6
28Net points8
34Algae points14
79Total teleop54
Reef
7L4#6
5L3#5
3L2#3
1L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +1
4Foul points0
110Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6317
#10
41.02.1
40.142.2
Auto5.4
Teleop30.0
End5.6
blue by 32.6
111
#19
73.71.6
86.885.1
Auto12.8
Teleop50.7
End10.2
Second
1781
#26
28.82.1
18.921.0
Auto8.9
Teleop19.4
End0.5
red by 0.9
4256
#33
27.81.6
26.524.9
Auto5.8
Teleop18.2
End3.8
Third
5822
#27
18.12.1
15.717.8
Auto5.3
Teleop11.4
End1.4
blue by 7.9
6421
#18
25.91.6
20.018.3
Auto6.5
Teleop15.4
End4.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsEarned90%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsMissed88%Barge oddsEarned