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Red100
518824.7
174142.3
44728.6
Blue98
540234.5
394061.0
719.2
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12412240608010014016010098

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+8Teleop
+4Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave6
6Coral scored#4
30Coral points21
30Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +5
11Coral scored#11
40Coral points39
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
58Total teleop53
Reef
7L4#4
3L3#4
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
21Game pieces#18
BargeBlue +4
12Cage & park16
12Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points2
100Total score98

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1741
#12
42.30.3
46.546.2
Auto14.0
Teleop26.1
End2.2
blue by 18.7
3940
#15
61.01.3
68.166.7
Auto12.4
Teleop40.8
End7.8
Second
447
#3
28.60.3
26.626.3
Auto7.1
Teleop16.4
End5.1
blue by 5.9
5402
#16
34.51.3
34.533.2
Auto8.6
Teleop20.8
End5.1
Third
5188
#10
24.70.3
31.931.6
Auto8.5
Teleop14.7
End1.6
red by 15.6
71
#27
9.21.3
13.412.1
Auto2.6
Teleop6.2
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned75%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
21%Coral oddsMissed44%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
64%Barge oddsMissed80%Barge oddsEarned