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Red198
448545.2
745794.3
348737.6
Blue178
672142.5
518839.4
46160.3
87%Model gave it13%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions178131100150200250300198178

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+30Teleop
+20Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave6
6Coral scored#9
31Coral points45
37Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +44
34Coral scored#23
121Coral points81
3Processor algae#3
4Net algae#3
18Processor points18
16Net points12
34Algae points30
155Total teleop111
Reef
14L4#11
14L3#10
7L2#4
5L1 · trough#7
47Game pieces#38
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
0Foul points0
198Total score178

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
94.31.6
82.183.7
Auto23.2
Teleop61.6
End9.5
red by 34.0
461
#5
60.32.4
53.555.9
Auto17.5
Teleop35.4
End7.4
Second
4485
#31
45.21.6
44.345.9
Auto9.1
Teleop34.4
End1.6
red by 2.7
6721
#23
42.52.4
36.138.5
Auto7.2
Teleop29.7
End5.5
Third
3487
#33
37.61.6
33.134.7
Auto7.0
Teleop29.1
End1.5
blue by 1.8
5188
#28
39.42.4
38.641.0
Auto11.7
Teleop25.3
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
30%Coral oddsEarned33%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
68%Barge oddsMissed62%Barge oddsEarned