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Red176
32837.1
695635.1
492654.0
Blue154
745441.9
174738.9
348737.6
56%Model gave it44%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions143138100200176154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+26Teleop
+16Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
6Leave9
4Coral scored#0
20Coral points0
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +9
23Coral scored#23
84Coral points81
4Processor algae#3
5Net algae#5
24Processor points18
20Net points20
44Algae points38
128Total teleop119
Reef
9L4#9
10L3#8
5L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
6Foul points0
176Total score154

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4926
#14
54.01.8
43.545.3
Auto16.5
Teleop30.9
End6.6
red by 12.1
7454
#26
41.91.2
43.044.3
Auto10.7
Teleop24.2
End7.0
Second
328
#35
37.11.8
33.735.5
Auto3.1
Teleop32.9
End1.0
blue by 1.8
1747
#16
38.91.2
34.635.8
Auto5.4
Teleop26.0
End7.5
Third
6956
#24
35.11.8
33.235.0
Auto7.3
Teleop25.1
End2.8
blue by 2.5
3487
#33
37.61.2
29.030.3
Auto7.0
Teleop29.1
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
61%Barge oddsEarned87%Barge oddsEarned