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Red90
448528.8
23438.3
843115.5
Blue46
498211.8
355910.4
501034.6
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions678002040601001201401609046

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+52Teleop
+56Endgame
+44Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave6
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
16Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +42
11Coral scored#6
40Coral points20
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#0
12Processor points6
16Net points0
28Algae points6
68Total teleop26
Reef
6L4#2
3L3#1
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#7
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +44
0Foul points12
90Total score46

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
234
#10
38.32.9
30.133.0
Auto5.3
Teleop29.6
End3.4
red by 3.7
5010
#18
34.62.5
35.833.3
Auto6.9
Teleop23.1
End4.6
Second
4485
#21
28.82.9
20.423.3
Auto5.4
Teleop22.7
End0.7
red by 17.0
4982
#32
11.84.2
20.416.1
Auto1.8
Teleop8.1
End1.9
Third
8431
#37
15.51.7
13.715.4
Auto3.7
Teleop10.9
End0.9
red by 5.1
3559
#35
10.44.2
16.111.8
Auto2.8
Teleop4.9
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsEarned50%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed44%Barge oddsEarned