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Red60
498211.8
745434.0
29220.7
Blue32
649816.6
458012.8
856417.7
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions686502040801001206032

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+2Teleop
+14Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave9
1Coral scored#0
7Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +5
4Coral scored#4
14Coral points15
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
0Processor points0
0Net points4
0Algae points4
14Total teleop19
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#5
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
14Foul points0
60Total score32

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7454
#11
34.02.1
23.921.8
Auto7.5
Teleop20.2
End6.3
red by 16.3
8564
#12
17.73.2
21.718.5
Auto4.3
Teleop10.3
End3.0
Second
292
#19
20.72.1
25.723.7
Auto4.6
Teleop12.9
End3.2
red by 4.1
6498
#39
16.63.2
18.615.4
Auto4.5
Teleop9.5
End2.6
Third
4982
#32
11.82.1
11.99.8
Auto1.8
Teleop8.1
End1.9
blue by 1.0
4580
#34
12.83.2
17.914.7
Auto3.7
Teleop6.6
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsEarned37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
55%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsMissed