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Red120
150160.5
548427.2
458012.8
Blue57
448528.8
348714.4
949121.5
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions108665010015012057

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+53Teleop
+65Endgame
+63Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave9
3Coral scored#0
16Coral points0
19Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +43
18Coral scored#10
65Coral points36
1Processor algae#0
4Net algae#2
6Processor points0
16Net points8
22Algae points8
87Total teleop44
Reef
10L4#4
4L3#3
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
26Game pieces#12
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +63
0Foul points2
120Total score57

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.51.2
54.755.8
Auto15.1
Teleop36.9
End8.5
red by 31.7
4485
#21
28.81.8
22.620.8
Auto5.4
Teleop22.7
End0.7
Second
27.21.2
26.828.0
Auto5.9
Teleop21.1
End0.1
red by 5.7
9491
#14
21.51.8
20.819.0
Auto5.6
Teleop13.2
End2.7
Third
4580
#34
12.82.0
9.711.6
Auto3.7
Teleop6.6
End2.5
blue by 1.6
3487
#36
14.41.8
19.117.3
Auto3.1
Teleop11.8
End-0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
70%Auto oddsEarned50%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
39%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed