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Red144
747718.6
174155.7
448540.4
Blue94
540244.1
1017216.6
1049312.0
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12157010015020014494

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+50Teleop
+38Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave3
5Coral scored#1
23Coral points3
23Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +33
14Coral scored#12
51Coral points42
4Processor algae#2
8Net algae#5
24Processor points12
32Net points20
56Algae points32
107Total teleop74
Reef
8L4#5
5L3#3
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
31Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +12
2Cage & park14
2Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +50
12Foul points0
144Total score94

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1741
#10
55.70.9
54.355.1
Auto15.5
Teleop37.3
End2.9
red by 11.6
5402
#11
44.12.0
37.139.1
Auto5.1
Teleop31.0
End8.0
Second
4485
#13
40.40.9
37.137.9
Auto5.8
Teleop32.8
End1.7
red by 23.8
16.61.5
13.414.9
Auto4.4
Teleop9.2
End3.0
Third
7477
#25
18.60.9
13.514.4
Auto3.4
Teleop13.1
End2.0
red by 6.6
12.02.0
8.810.9
Auto2.9
Teleop7.8
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned45%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
12%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed57%Barge oddsEarned