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Red129
102437.2
911922.8
174155.7
Blue144
13533.7
540244.1
695633.2
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13413180100120160180200129144

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+3Teleop
+5Endgame
Fouls+15
AutonomousRed +13
9Leave3
3Coral scored#2
17Coral points10
26Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +10
11Coral scored#15
41Coral points55
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#5
18Processor points6
12Net points20
30Algae points26
71Total teleop81
Reef
5L4#7
4L3#3
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#23
BargeRed +2
26Cage & park24
26Total endgame24
Penalties & totalBlue +15
6Foul points26
129Total score144

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1741
#10
55.70.0
55.555.5
Auto15.5
Teleop37.3
End2.9
red by 11.6
5402
#11
44.10.0
44.144.1
Auto5.1
Teleop31.0
End8.0
Second
37.20.0
37.037.1
Auto7.0
Teleop23.8
End6.4
red by 3.5
135
#23
33.70.0
33.733.8
Auto6.9
Teleop18.9
End8.0
Third
9119
#15
22.80.0
22.622.7
Auto3.3
Teleop13.9
End5.7
blue by 10.3
6956
#12
33.20.0
33.233.2
Auto4.4
Teleop25.8
End2.9