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Red186
427264.9
348729.0
745771.3
Blue136
317644.9
44726.3
46147.7
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions174118100150200250186136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+38Teleop
+48Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave0
8Coral scored#6
38Coral points30
47Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +21
21Coral scored#14
75Coral points50
4Processor algae#4
3Net algae#4
24Processor points24
12Net points16
36Algae points40
111Total teleop90
Reef
12L4#7
7L3#6
6L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#28
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +50
2Foul points0
186Total score136

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.30.6
68.068.7
Auto17.7
Teleop43.0
End10.6
red by 23.6
461
#7
47.70.5
45.646.1
Auto11.0
Teleop31.3
End5.4
Second
64.90.6
61.662.3
Auto17.6
Teleop38.7
End8.5
red by 20.0
44.90.5
42.843.3
Auto5.0
Teleop32.7
End7.2
Third
3487
#17
29.00.6
25.826.4
Auto6.4
Teleop21.4
End1.2
red by 2.7
447
#33
26.30.5
24.224.7
Auto3.9
Teleop17.7
End4.7