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Red148
317644.9
44726.3
46147.7
Blue124
102437.2
911922.8
174155.7
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions134133100120140160180148124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+20Teleop
+30Endgame
+24Fouls
Autonomouslevel
3Leave6
4Coral scored#3
20Coral points17
23Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +20
18Coral scored#17
63Coral points61
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
12Processor points6
20Net points8
32Algae points14
95Total teleop75
Reef
6L4#8
6L3#6
6L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#23
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +24
6Foul points12
148Total score124

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
461
#7
47.70.6
46.146.7
Auto11.0
Teleop31.3
End5.4
blue by 8.0
1741
#10
55.70.1
55.855.7
Auto15.5
Teleop37.3
End2.9
Second
44.90.6
43.343.9
Auto5.0
Teleop32.7
End7.2
red by 7.6
37.20.1
37.337.2
Auto7.0
Teleop23.8
End6.4
Third
447
#33
26.30.6
24.725.3
Auto3.9
Teleop17.7
End4.7
red by 3.4
9119
#15
22.80.1
22.922.8
Auto3.3
Teleop13.9
End5.7