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Red105
13524.9
155511.1
46142.7
Blue61
44719.5
393613.5
386517.6
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10352015010561

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+56Teleop
+58Endgame
+44Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
0Leave0
5Coral scored#1
24Coral points6
24Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +38
13Coral scored#6
47Coral points21
2Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
12Processor points0
4Net points4
16Algae points4
63Total teleop25
Reef
8L4#3
5L3#2
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#8
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +44
2Foul points16
105Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
461
#4
42.70.5
43.644.1
Auto9.8
Teleop29.6
End3.3
red by 23.2
447
#18
19.50.1
19.419.3
Auto5.4
Teleop11.6
End2.5
Second
135
#3
24.90.5
25.826.3
Auto6.3
Teleop14.1
End4.6
red by 7.4
17.60.1
17.517.3
Auto2.4
Teleop13.1
End2.1
Third
1555
#25
11.10.5
12.012.5
Auto3.4
Teleop5.3
End2.3
blue by 2.4
3936
#16
13.50.1
13.313.2
Auto1.8
Teleop10.3
End1.4