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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7115905010020095126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+33
Endgame+31
Fouls+31
AutonomousBlue +7
9Leave6
4Coral scored#6
21Coral points31
30Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +26
8Coral scored#16
27Coral points59
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#1
6Processor points12
16Net points4
22Algae points16
49Total teleop75
Reef
6L4#8
2L3#6
2L2#4
2L1 · trough#4
17Game pieces#25
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +31
0Foul points0
95Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.01.3
34.135.3
Auto10.0
Teleop24.4
End8.5
blue by 22.5
65.50.9
61.260.3
Auto16.8
Teleop40.7
End8.0
Second
5188
#18
32.41.3
20.521.8
Auto8.6
Teleop20.4
End3.4
blue by 28.1
60.40.9
51.050.1
Auto17.4
Teleop35.9
End7.2
Third
23.11.3
21.422.6
Auto6.0
Teleop14.7
End2.4
blue by 10.8
1720
#21
33.80.9
27.426.5
Auto6.4
Teleop20.2
End7.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed43%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
47%Barge oddsEarned93%Barge oddsEarned