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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions45125010015020054171

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+35
Teleop+85
Endgame+105
Fouls+117
AutonomousBlue +35
3Leave6
1Coral scored#8
6Coral points38
9Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +50
8Coral scored#19
29Coral points69
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#2
6Processor points12
4Net points8
10Algae points20
39Total teleop89
Reef
4L4#11
2L3#5
2L2#6
1L1 · trough#5
11Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +117
0Foul points12
54Total score171

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2867
#14
30.00.2
21.221.1
Auto5.5
Teleop23.1
End1.5
blue by 48.9
868
#1
78.93.2
52.856.0
Auto21.0
Teleop48.5
End9.4
Second
8430
#24
18.20.2
18.918.8
Auto5.7
Teleop9.4
End3.1
blue by 28.6
234
#7
46.93.2
38.341.5
Auto11.5
Teleop28.8
End6.6
Third
3559
#10
17.60.2
13.713.5
Auto4.0
Teleop8.8
End4.8
blue by 5.9
6498
#16
23.53.2
17.120.3
Auto3.8
Teleop16.3
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
69%Auto oddsMissed74%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed41%Barge oddsEarned